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How Supercomputing Will Evolve, According to Jack Dongarra

Posted on August 5, 2025 by faz_business

Quantum computing is interesting. It’s really a wonderful area for research, but my feeling is we have a long way to go. Today we have examples of quantum computers—hardware always arrives before software—but those examples are very primitive. With a digital computer, we think of doing a computation and getting an answer. The quantum computer is instead going to give us a probability distribution of where the answer is, and you’re going to make a number of, we’ll call it runs on the quantum computer, and it’ll give you a number of potential solutions to the problem, but it’s not going to give you the answer. So it’s going to be different.

With quantum computing, are we caught in a moment of hype?

I think unfortunately it’s been oversold—there’s too much hype associated with quantum. The result of that typically is that people will get all excited about it, and then it doesn’t live up to any of the promises that were made, and then the excitement will collapse.

We’ve seen this before: AI has gone through that cycle and has recovered. And now today AI is a real thing. People use it, it’s productive, and it’s going to serve a purpose for all of us in a very substantial way. I think quantum has to go through that winter, where people will be discouraged by it, they’ll ignore it, and then there’ll be some bright people who figure out how to use it and how to make it so that it is more competitive with traditional things.

There are many issues that have to be worked out. Quantum computers are very easy to disturb. They’re going to have a lot of “faults”—they will break down because of the nature of how fragile the computation is. Until we can make things more resistant to those failures, it’s not going to do quite the job that we hope that it can do. I don’t think we’ll ever have a laptop that’s a quantum laptop. I may be wrong, but certainly I don’t think it’ll happen in my lifetime.

Quantum computers also need quantum algorithms, and today we have very few algorithms that can effectively be run on a quantum computer. So quantum computing is at its infancy, and along with that the infrastructure that will use the quantum computer. So quantum algorithms, quantum software, the techniques that we have, all of those are very primitive.

When can we expect—if ever—the transition from traditional to quantum systems?

So today we have many supercomputing centers around the world, and they have very powerful computers. Those are digital computers. Sometimes the digital computer gets augmented with something to enhance performance—an accelerator. Today those accelerators are GPUs, graphics processing units. The GPU does something very well, and it just does that thing well, it’s been architected to do that. In the old days, that was important for graphics; today we’re refactoring that so that we can use a GPU to satisfy some of the computational needs that we have.

How the Binding of Two Brain Molecules Creates Memories That Last a Lifetime

Posted on July 6, 2025 by faz_business

The original version of this story appeared in Quanta Magazine.

When Todd Sacktor was about to turn 3, his 4-year-old sister died of leukemia. “An empty bedroom next to mine. A swing set with two seats instead of one,” he said, recalling the lingering traces of her presence in the house. “There was this missing person—never spoken of—for which I had only one memory.” That memory, faint but enduring, was set in the downstairs den of their home. A young Sacktor asked his sister to read him a book, and she brushed him off: “Go ask your mother.” Sacktor glumly trudged up the stairs to the kitchen.

It’s remarkable that, more than 60 years later, Sacktor remembers this fleeting childhood moment at all. The astonishing nature of memory is that every recollection is a physical trace, imprinted into brain tissue by the molecular machinery of neurons. How the essence of a lived moment is encoded and later retrieved remains one of the central unanswered questions in neuroscience.

Sacktor became a neuroscientist in pursuit of an answer. At the State University of New York Downstate in Brooklyn, he studies the molecules involved in maintaining the neuronal connections underlying memory. The question that has always held his attention was first articulated in 1984 by the famed biologist Francis Crick: How can memories persist for years, even decades, when the body’s molecules degrade and are replaced in a matter of days, weeks or, at most, months?

In 2024, working alongside a team that included his longtime collaborator André Fenton, a neuroscientist at New York University, Sacktor offered a potential explanation in a paper published in Science Advances. The researchers discovered that a persistent bond between two proteins is associated with the strengthening of synapses, which are the connections between neurons. Synaptic strengthening is thought to be fundamental to memory formation. As these proteins degrade, new ones take their place in a connected molecular swap that maintains the bond’s integrity and, therefore, the memory.

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The researchers present “a very convincing case” that “the interaction between these two molecules is needed for memory storage,” said Karl Peter Giese, a neurobiologist at King’s College London who was not involved with the work. The findings offer a compelling response to Crick’s dilemma, reconciling the discordant timescales to explain how ephemeral molecules maintain memories that last a lifetime.

Molecular Memory

Early in his career, Sacktor made a discovery that would shape the rest of his life. After studying under the molecular memory pioneer James Schwartz at Columbia University, he opened his own lab at SUNY Downstate to search for a molecule that might help explain how long-term memories persist.

The molecule he was looking for would be in the brain’s synapses. In 1949, the psychologist Donald Hebb proposed that repeatedly activating neurons strengthens the connections between them, or, as the neurobiologist Carla Shatz later put it: “Cells that fire together, wire together.” In the decades since, many studies have suggested that the stronger the connection between neurons that hold memories, the better the memories persist.

In the early 1990s, in a dish in his lab, Sacktor stimulated a slice of a rat’s hippocampus—a small region of the brain linked to memories of events and places, such as the interaction Sacktor had with his sister in the den—to activate neural pathways in a way that mimicked memory encoding and storage. Then he searched for any molecular changes that had taken place. Every time he repeated the experiment, he saw elevated levels of a certain protein within the synapses. “By the fourth time, I was like, this is it,” he said.

Which Countries and Regions Might Be Impacted by Asteroid 2024 YR4?

Posted on February 13, 2025 by faz_business

Asteroid 2024 YR4, measuring approximately 40 to 100 meters wide, will pass very close to Earth in December 2032—and might even strike the planet. Because of its size, speed, and the possibility of it making impact, the internet has given it the nickname of “the city destroyer.”

Major space agencies, such as the European Space Agency, estimate there’s about a 2 percent chance that 2024 YR4 will hit Earth, though this risk figure will be updated as scientists learn more about the asteroid’s path. Although it’s far more likely the asteroid will miss Earth, sites that could be affected by a collision have already been identified.

The destructive potential of 2024 YR4 depends on its composition, speed, and mass. Because the asteroid is still very far away, these characteristics can only be estimated, and the consequences of a strike are therefore also somewhat imprecise predictions at this stage. Currently, astronomers believe 2024 YR4 would create an airburst—or mid-air explosion—upon impact that would be equivalent to nearly 8 million tons of TNT, or 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. This explosion would affect roughly a 50-kilometer radius around the impact site.

For the location of the collision, some experts, such as David Rankin, an engineer with NASA’s Catalina Sky Survey Project, have sketched out a “risk corridor.” According to the asteroid’s current path, and if the 2 percent probability becomes reality, the asteroid should fall somewhere in a band of territory stretching from northern South America, across the Pacific Ocean, to southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and Africa. Countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador would be at risk.

The threat posed by asteroids and comets that could potentially strike Earth is measured on the 11-point Torino scale: The higher the score, the greater the risk that a traveling space object will impact Earth and cause large amounts of destruction. The 2024 YR4 asteroid is current ranked at level 3, meaning it is large enough and will pass close enough to merit being carefully monitored. However, most international agencies are confident that the risk level will decrease over time to zero as the asteroid’s trajectory becomes clearer. Initially, the probability of impact was 1.2 percent. It was then adjusted up to 2.3 percent, before the most recent assessment reduced the risk to 2 percent.

This isn’t the first time such an alert has been raised, nor is 2024 YR4 the riskiest space object to have been monitored. The asteroid Apophis, which was discovered in 2004, at times scored higher than 2024 YR4 on both the Torino scale and collision probability. Shortly after it was discovered, it was given a 2.7 percent chance of hitting Earth. However, after a few months and with better observations, scientists adjusted their calculations to more realistic values. Now, although it will pass very close to Earth in 2029, the chances of collision are zero.

In response to 2024 YR4, the UN has activated an emergency protocol for the protection of the planet. For the time being, given the asteroid is on level 3 of the Torino scale, this is limited to continuous monitoring to understand the asteroid’s movements.

Measures are also being developed to protect Earth from asteroids with destructive potential. These include kinetic strikes, where rockets are sent into space to collide with asteroids, to deflect them off a collision path with Earth. NASA’s 2023 DART mission proved that such strikes can be launched and that they can move space objects, by testing this technique on a harmless asteroid called Dimorphos.

This story originally appeared on WIRED en Español and has been translated from Spanish.

NASA’s Parker Solar Probe will fly closer to the sun than ever on Christmas Eve

Posted on December 23, 2024 by faz_business

NASA’s Parker Solar Probe is still zipping around the sun making history, and it’s gearing up for another record-setting approach this week. On December 24 at 6:53AM ET, the spacecraft’s orbit will take it just 3.8 million miles from the solar surface, according to the space agency. That’ll be the closest it — or any other probe — has ever come to the sun. The milestone will mark the completion of the Parker Solar Probe’s 22nd orbit around our star, and the first of the three final closest flybys planned for its mission. The craft, which launched in 2018, is expected to complete a total of 24 orbits.

“No human-made object has ever passed this close to a star, so Parker will truly be returning data from uncharted territory,” Nick Pinkine, Parker Solar Probe mission operations manager at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, said in a statement on NASA’s blog. “We’re excited to hear back from the spacecraft when it swings back around the Sun.”

The Parker Solar Probe will be traveling at about 430,000 miles per hour at the time of its closest-ever pass. It’ll ping the team to confirm its health on December 27, when it’ll be far enough from the sun to resume communications.

‘Absolution’ Excerpt: Read the Beginning of Jeff VanderMeer’s Newest Southern Reach Book

Posted on October 22, 2024 by faz_business

But then, too, there was the assurance, the confidence, in the accounts of the biologists as remedy to allay suspicion. Because Sergeant Rocker, too, had then taken to the waters and disappeared, the biologists using their tracking equipment to make sure they could follow the alligators in their new lives.

The Tyrant kept to herself, while the others remained in close proximity, for a while. None, at least overnight, seemed inclined to leave the area, and by the fourth day, Team Leader 1 put the most junior member of their party on the task of monitoring moments that might include a full day of basking in the same stretch of mud.

On day six they found Firestorm’s front leg, bobber wire wrapped around it, the whole prominently displayed on a mudbank with deep boot prints suggesting poachers. There was, one biologist wrote, “a bathetic or pathetic quality to the paleness of the leg, enraptured in the evidence of our experiment, lost so far from her home. I wept for an hour, but do not know if this was an appropriate response.”

(No, Old Jim did not believe it was an appropriate response, even as he himself wept at odd hours, for his own reasons, down in Central’s archives.)

Battlebee turned up dead and bloated and white, with a chunk ripped out of him postmortem by some creature, possibly Sergeant Rocker, speculation being that stress and the anesthetic had been too hard on him. Postmortem examination revealed stomach contents that included fish, a turtle, mud, and, inexplicably, a broken teacup.

She had also been pregnant, “a fact that surprised us,” Team Leader 2 wrote, “given her credentials identified her as a male,” amid some general confusion: “To be honest, I cannot now remember when we first took this project on, when we first encountered these subjects. The heat here is abysmal.”

Sergeant Rocker opted out of the project by shedding his harness in the water near the tent of Team Leader 1, indicating, as she absurdly put it, “A politeness on the part of Sergeant Rocker in keeping with his personality when I knew him best. I felt this loss much more deeply than expected.”

This sentimentality toward an alligator seen as an obligation just days before weighed on Old Jim, although he could not put a finger on why. Nor did he understand why the alligator experiment registered with the biologists in their reports as a great success, and they would even reference it with a kind of beautiful, all-consuming nostalgia when the mission began to sour. The myth of competence, perhaps. The myth of persistence. The myth of objectivity.

Perhaps, both he and the biologists would have been wiser to focus on how Sergeant Rocker had turned into an escape artist, for the harness was intact and still latched, with no tears anywhere. So how had the alligator possibly gotten free? Old Jim kept seeing the biologists by a trick of faulty video running away from the release site, only to re-form in their drinking circle.

He replayed the video so often that it became a disconcerting mess of light and shadow, of pixelated disembodied heads and legs and shapes that leapt out and sharpened, only to become subsumed into the past.

“All possible measures were taken but nothing could be done.”

Or had the outcome been exactly as intended?

Fusion Sparks an Energy Revolution

Posted on June 19, 2024 by faz_business

In 2024, fusion technology will finally make the transition from basic research to commercial application. The reason for that will be the construction and completion of the first commercial fusion demonstrators. These cutting-edge facilities are smaller than fusion power plants. For instance, a laser-based fusion demonstrator might use five to ten laser beams, while a commercial power plant can use several hundred. However, they have a crucial role—to prove that fusion technology works on a small scale, paving the way for the construction of larger fusion-power plants. In 2024, they will do just this, starting to build devices that will finally achieve the elusive goal of energy gain– in other words, outputting more energy than the quantity needed to kickstart the fusion process. Hitting this milestone is a critical step in addressing the steeply increasing global energy demand, as fusion energy has the potential to provide an abundant, carbon-free source of power.

In 2022, researchers at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) in California became the first to demonstrate experimentally that a fusion process could indeed produce a net energy gain. This experiment used high-power lasers to deposit energy in a small fuel target—a millimeter-sized capsule containing frozen deuterium and tritium—creating the conditions for fusion to occur. The lasers delivered 2.05 megajoules of energy to the target, resulting in a fusion energy production of 3.1 megajoules. This was a scientific experiment—unlike fusion demonstrators, the NIF is not designed to operate continuously like a power plant. However, as a result of this scientific breakthrough, nuclear fusion has attracted considerable research, political, and investor attention in recent months.

National fusion strategies have been developed in the US, UK, Japan, Germany, and other countries to advance research and testing of the technology. Currently, the US and the UK are leading the race: The US Department of Energy funds fusion research with an annual budget of about $1.4 billion and encourages private enterprises to accelerate commercialization. The UK similarly fosters public-private partnership by raising a fusion cluster with universities and companies combining their expertise. High-profile investors recognize the opportunity of fusion technology, with over $5 billion of private capital flowing into fusion companies in the last two years.

The initiatives are bearing fruit: Several fusion companies worldwide, including Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Helion Energy, and General Fusion have announced plans to begin constructing facilities in 2024 to demonstrate their technological approach. According to the latest report by the Fusion Industry Association, over half of all fusion companies believe that fusion energy will be delivered to the public power grid during the 2030s. In May 2023, Microsoft signed a power purchase agreement with Helion Energy, to secure a supply of fusion-generated electricity by 2028. In August 2023, Marvel Fusion (a fusion energy firm I cofounded) announced a partnership with Colorado State University worth $150 million, the largest public-private partnership to date, with the aim of building the only laser facility tailored to a commercial laser-based fusion technology and the most powerful short-pulse laser system in the world. With these advances and commitments in place, 2024 is set to show that fusion is no longer a distant dream but an achievable future of clean and sustainable energy.

No One Knows How Far Bird Flu Has Spread

Posted on May 3, 2024 by faz_business

In late March, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced it had detected cases of bird flu in dairy cattle. Initially discovered in dairy farms in Texas, Kansas, and New Mexico, there are now 36 confirmed outbreaks in dairy herds in nine states.

Although the H5N1 virus circulates widely in wild birds, it is now circulating among dairy cattle in the US. The USDA has confirmed transmission between cows in the same herd, from cows to birds, and between different dairy cattle herds.

But the reported outbreaks are likely to be a major underestimation of the true spread of the virus, says James Wood, head of veterinary medicine at the University of Cambridge. “It’s likely there is going to be a fair amount of underreporting and underdiagnosis,” he says.

Tests by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) of retail milk samples might give some indication of how widespread the virus is. The agency found viral fragments in one in five samples of commercial milk, although this virus had been deactivated by pasteurization so was not infectious.

So far there is only one confirmed human infection in the outbreak: someone in Texas who had close contact with dairy cattle. Their only reported symptom was conjunctivitis, and the individual was told to isolate themselves and take an antiviral drug for flu. But anecdotal reports of illness on dairy farms hints that infections among humans may be more widespread than official data suggests. Although human infections have tended to be rare, the virus is dangerous—just over half of the human cases recorded by the World Health Organization over the past two decades have been fatal.

Dairy workers are most at risk of possible infection in the current outbreak, but understanding the extent of any infections is extremely tricky, says James Lawler, professor of infectious diseases at University of Nebraska Medical Center. More than half of workers in the US dairy industry are immigrants, and many of them are undocumented.

These undocumented workers are unlikely to want to put themselves at risk by coming for testing, Lawler says. “There’s an inherent disincentive that many of the workers, because of their status as undocumented immigrants, are not raising their hands.” The result, Lawler says, is that it’s difficult for scientists to track any possible spread of the virus through humans.

Another issue is incentivizing owners of dairy farms to report when their animals seem sick. The USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service specifically provides payments for poultry farmers who have to kill their livestock due to bird flu infections. Dairy farmers don’t get compensated for reporting infections, which incentivizes producers to keep quiet, upping the risk that outbreaks get out of hand and spread to other cattle or farm workers.

This presents a major problem for tracking the spread of the disease. “From the perspective of a producer, how is it going to benefit them to share or even test and understand if there’s a virus circulating in their herd?” Lawler says.